Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scientific patronage in the age of Darwin: The curious case of William Boyd Dawkins

This essay examines the curious relationship between Charles Darwin and the palaeontologist William Boyd Dawkins (1837–1929). Dawkins was a beneficiary of Darwin's patronage and styled himself as a Darwinian to Darwin and the public, yet viciously attacked Darwin and his theory in anonymous reviews. This has confused historians who have misunderstood the exact nature of Dawkins's attitude towards evolution and his relationship to Darwin. The present study explains both the reasons for Dawkins's contradictory statements and his relationship with Darwin. I introduce Batesian mimicry as a conceptual framework to make sense of Dawkins's actions, suggesting that Dawkins mimicked a Darwinian persona in order to secure advancement in the world of Victorian science. Dawkins's pro-Darwinian stance, therefore, was a façade, an act of mimicry. I argue that Dawkins exploited Darwin for his patronage – which took the form of advice, support from Darwin's well-placed friends, and monetary assistance – while safely expressing his dissent from Darwinian orthodoxy in the form of anonymous reviews. This is, therefore, a case study in how scientific authority and power could be gained and maintained in Victorian science by professing allegiance to Darwin and Darwinism.     

The complement system in age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a chronic and progressive degenerative disease of the retina, which culminates in blindness and affects mainly the elderly population. AMD pathogenesis and pathophysiology are incredibly complex due to the structural and cellular complexity of the retina, and the variety of risk factors and molecular mechanisms that contribute to disease onset and progression. AMD is driven by a combination of genetic predisposition, natural ageing changes and lifestyle factors, such as smoking or nutritional intake. The mechanism by which these risk factors interact and converge towards AMD are not fully understood and therefore drug discovery is challenging, where no therapeutic attempt has been fully effective thus far. Genetic and molecular studies have identified the complement system as an important player in AMD. Indeed, many of the genetic risk variants cluster in genes of the alternative pathway of the complement system and complement activation products are elevated in AMD patients. Nevertheless, attempts in treating AMD via complement regulators have not yet been successful, suggesting a level of complexity that could not be predicted only from a genetic point of view. In this review, we will explore the role of complement system in AMD development and in the main molecular and cellular features of AMD, including complement activation itself, inflammation, ECM stability, energy metabolism and oxidative stress.

     

Flow and heat transfer behaviour of nanofluids in microchannels

Flow and heat transfer of aqueous based silica and alumina nanofluids in microchannels were experimentally investigated. The measured friction factors were higher than conventional model predictions at low Reynolds numbers particularly with high nanoparticle concentrations. A decrease in the friction factor was observed with increasing Reynolds number, possibly due to the augmentation of nanoparticle aggregate shape arising from fluid shear and alteration of local nanoparticle concentration and nanofluid viscosity. Augmentation of the silica nanoparticle morphology by fluid shear may also have affected the friction factor due to possible formation of a core/shell structure of the particles. Measured thermal conductivities of the silica nanofluids were in approximate agreement with the Maxwell-Crosser model, whereas the alumina nanofluids only showed slight enhancements. Enhanced convective heat transfer was observed for both nanofluids, relative to their base fluids (water), at low particle concentrations. Heat transfer enhancement increased with increasing Reynolds number and microchannel hydraulic diameter. However, the majority of experiments showed a larger increase in pumping power requirements relative to heat transfer enhancements, which may hinder the industrial uptake of the nanofluids, particularly in confined environments, such as Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS).